Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 21,224
2 Louisiana 20,799
3 Arizona 20,433
4 New Jersey 20,178
5 Florida 17,219
6 Rhode Island 16,978
7 Massachusetts 16,544
8 District of Columbia 16,191
9 Mississippi 15,296
10 Alabama 14,349
11 South Carolina 14,243
12 Delaware 14,116
13 Connecticut 13,490
14 Maryland 13,250
15 Illinois 13,063
16 Georgia 12,796
17 Iowa 12,589
18 Texas 12,263
19 Nevada 12,208
20 Nebraska 11,988
21 Tennessee 11,718
22 Arkansas 11,483
23 Utah 10,944
24 California 10,385
25 North Carolina 9,835
26 Virginia 9,298
27 South Dakota 9,064
28 Idaho 8,896
29 Indiana 8,814
30 Minnesota 8,422
31 Pennsylvania 8,394
32 New Mexico 8,354
33 Michigan 8,329
34 Wisconsin 8,225
35 Kansas 8,102
36 Colorado 7,146
37 North Dakota 6,838
38 Washington 6,664
39 Oklahoma 6,653
40 Ohio 6,605
41 Missouri 6,068
42 Kentucky 5,514
43 New Hampshire 4,605
44 Puerto Rico 4,051
45 Wyoming 3,866
46 Oregon 3,617
47 Alaska 3,448
48 West Virginia 2,900
49 Maine 2,769
50 Montana 2,564
51 Vermont 2,189
52 Hawaii 985

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 573
2 Florida 500
3 Mississippi 411
4 South Carolina 370
5 Alabama 348
6 Arizona 338
7 Nevada 324
8 Texas 293
9 Idaho 273
10 Tennessee 268
11 Georgia 236
12 Arkansas 234
13 California 229
14 Utah 172
15 Alaska 166
16 North Carolina 158
17 Wisconsin 158
18 Kansas 156
19 Missouri 156
20 Puerto Rico 155
21 Iowa 148
22 Kentucky 140
23 North Dakota 131
24 Maryland 128
25 Washington 125
26 New Mexico 124
27 Minnesota 117
28 Virginia 117
29 Indiana 113
30 Nebraska 111
31 District of Columbia 110
32 Delaware 108
33 Oklahoma 106
34 Ohio 96
35 Illinois 91
36 Montana 84
37 Oregon 81
38 Colorado 77
39 Wyoming 74
40 Pennsylvania 69
41 Michigan 60
42 Rhode Island 60
43 South Dakota 59
44 West Virginia 51
45 Massachusetts 38
46 New York 32
47 Maine 19
48 Connecticut 18
49 New Hampshire 18
50 New Jersey 16
51 Hawaii 15
52 Vermont 14

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,771
2 New York 1,656
3 Connecticut 1,235
4 Massachusetts 1,225
5 Rhode Island 940
6 District of Columbia 821
7 Louisiana 776
8 Michigan 639
9 Illinois 593
10 Maryland 562
11 Pennsylvania 554
12 Delaware 539
13 Mississippi 466
14 Indiana 422
15 Arizona 400
16 Colorado 306
17 Georgia 300
18 New Hampshire 294
19 Minnesota 281
20 New Mexico 280
21 Ohio 275
22 Alabama 265
23 Iowa 256
24 Florida 242
25 Virginia 239
26 South Carolina 237
27 Nevada 220
28 Washington 201
29 California 199
30 Missouri 191
31 North Carolina 162
32 Nebraska 161
33 Kentucky 155
34 Wisconsin 149
35 Texas 148
36 South Dakota 133
37 North Dakota 128
38 Tennessee 126
39 Arkansas 123
40 Oklahoma 116
41 Kansas 109
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 87
44 Utah 79
45 Idaho 71
46 Oregon 64
47 Puerto Rico 56
48 West Virginia 56
49 Wyoming 43
50 Montana 37
51 Alaska 21
52 Hawaii 16

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arizona 8
2 Louisiana 7
3 South Carolina 5
4 Florida 4
5 Mississippi 4
6 Nevada 3
7 New Mexico 3
8 Texas 3
9 Georgia 2
10 Ohio 2
11 Alabama 1
12 Arkansas 1
13 California 1
14 Idaho 1
15 Indiana 1
16 Iowa 1
17 Maryland 1
18 Massachusetts 1
19 New Jersey 1
20 North Carolina 1
21 North Dakota 1
22 Oregon 1
23 Rhode Island 1
24 Tennessee 1
25 Utah 1
26 Alaska 0
27 Colorado 0
28 Connecticut 0
29 Delaware 0
30 District of Columbia 0
31 Hawaii 0
32 Illinois 0
33 Kansas 0
34 Kentucky 0
35 Maine 0
36 Michigan 0
37 Minnesota 0
38 Missouri 0
39 Montana 0
40 Nebraska 0
41 New Hampshire 0
42 New York 0
43 Oklahoma 0
44 Pennsylvania 0
45 Puerto Rico 0
46 South Dakota 0
47 Vermont 0
48 Virginia 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 137,097 1 99
Lake Tennessee 100,057 2 99
Lee Arkansas 97,776 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 93,528 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 89,602 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 26,041 115 96
Richland South Carolina 15,413 371 88
Orange California 9,754 801 74
York South Carolina 8,947 894 71
Pierce Washington 4,837 1550 50

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,902 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,399 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
McKinley New Mexico 2,886 5 99
Richland South Carolina 269 656 79
Davidson Tennessee 248 703 77
Orange California 162 954 69
Pierce Washington 134 1082 65
York South Carolina 57 1635 47

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons